Japan's 5th generation fighter

[BorgR3mc0]

A bit old news for some but I missed it the first time around. Japan is apperently making progress on the new jet fighter, the Shinshin.

http://globalaviationreport.com/2014/07 ... prototype/


I wonder when Tamiya or Hasegawa will relaese a model of this new jet...

[Thomas_M]

Looks nice and futuristic. At least there still is a pilot on board...

Thanks for the link, Borg!

[Medicman71]

Interesting for sure. Wonder how close this will be to the operational version.

[BorgR3mc0]

Interesting for sure. Wonder how close this will be to the operational version.

I have been doing some reading today and aperently this is a technology demonstrator for what should become the F-3. So, like the XF-22/F-22A and EAP/Typhoon, still a lot can change. But on the other hand, they have got a flying airframe. That is more then the 5th generation projects of India, Turkey or Korea have.

I wonder if US companies are involved. They where in previous indignous fighter projects like the F-2, T-50 and Chin-kuo. This involvement caused certain export restrictions. If Japan is truely self sufficient then this might lead to interesting export options. Because there is no other "western" 5th generation avaible on the market.

[AIRFIXER]

[...] If Japan is truely self sufficient then this might lead to interesting export options. Because there is no other "western" 5th generation avaible on the market.

It's highly unlikely that a F-3 will see any export customers, for a couple of reasons:

• Though Japan has somewhat lifted its self-imposed "Policies on the Control of Arms Exports",Japan's general manner of trading arms and technology can still be considered as highly restrictive compared to other nations, not only being limited to "fnished goods" but also covering "specially-designed parts and accessories".

• The F-3's avionics, fight control systems, sensor suite and defensive subsystems will be extremely security sensitive. That in mind, exports of an even downgraded version will positively collide with Japan's "Policies on the Control of Arms Exports".

• Operating and fully exploiting the capabilities of such a sophisticated weapon system necessitates the setup of an integrated defense and information distribution system - infrastructure. The F-3 won't be a self-sustaining stand-alone system.

• Price tag. Even in case Japan may largely abandon its current arms export policies, only very few countries will be in the run to afford both purchasing significant numbers of airframes and setting up the required infrastructure. Any projected sales figures will be highly limited. In either case procurement will be costly, hence limiting the number of airframes on order, just in line with the F-2. On the other hand, even in the light of rising tensions with China and assuming the ATD-X programme's proof of concept, an actual development of an F-3 is far from being home and hosed.

Fact is that Japan needs a state-of-the-art replacement for its ageing fleet - the F-15J in particular.
On the other hand the question arises whether Japan itself can truly afford another solo.

The suspense continues...

Cheers,
Erik

[BorgR3mc0]

Some of the reasons you state, such as cost and security of certain systems, are exactly the reasons why the US has not exported the F-22. Both Japan and Israel wanted to puchase it. And Australia also expressed interest. As such one could see a export market for such a plane. I do not think Australia or Israel would want to buy military equipment from either Russia or China so Japan might be a viable option.

And eventough Japan's current policiy prevent them from selling such equipment this might change. Especially if there is a dollar to be earned.

[AIRFIXER]

Hypothetically speaking, let's assume Japan gives up its current arms trading policy and starts marketing an export version of the F-3 on the international market.

Tier 1 customers:
Current and possible future strategic partners in the Asian/Pacific hemisphere in order to counterbalance the rapidly growing military presence and hegemonial influence of China.
A vital interest for Japan, accordingly the Japanese will be keen to undertake appropriate steps to secure or boost their vital interest in that region. Proliferation of such a sophisticated weapon system might be one of the options to accomplish this goal. And over the past few years, Japanese military goods, mostly components, have been mainly sold to countries that are situated along Japan's vital sea lines further emphasising the importance of the Southeast Asian region. I think that's the road they will take in the future.

Possible key markets in the region have already been occupied by the F-35 - Australia, Singapore, and South Korea. For historical reasons, South Korea will struggle purchasing Japanese material. Furthermore, any possible deal with South Korea will only come to fruition if it's involved in manufacturing and technology transfer, hence clipping Japan's margin. Singapore is another F-35 customer. Anyway, possible F-3 purchases would be very limited. If any. Malaysia, another tier 1 customer, may overcome its historical concerns replacing its F-5E, F/A-18D and MiG-29 with F-3. But again, not in significant numbers. The Malaysians are well known for being extremely price-sensitive and any price tag exceeding the 30m USD barrier will be ruled out.

The U.S. won't be amused at all to see another of their startegic partners competing with the F-35 on a key market., bearing well in mind that Japan itself is a key customer of the F-35. Let alone how pissed the Chinese will be...

Tier 2 customers:
India, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan.
India's already involved in the Russian PAK-FA program, though its outcome is somewhat arguable. Apart from that, India has just ordered French Rafale fighters. Thailand cannot afford it, neither can Indonesia. Indonesia hast just been receiving surplus U.S. F-16...
F-3 for Taiwan? The Chinese will run riot and the U.S. will definitely put decent pressure on them to purchase stuff from god's own country.

Tier 3 customers:
Israel, Rest of the world...
Israel is another F-35 key customer, and considering Israel's dependency on U.S. financial backing they won't give a damn about any F.3 purchases. RoW: Who on earth is willing to purchase an aircraft with a price tag definitely (and vastly) exceeding the 50m USD mark? Remember, even the F-2's non-recurring costs' price tag has greatly exceeded the 120m USD barrier per aircraft. Some sources are even stating 132m USD per aircraft...

In case, the Japanese may pull it through and the "full Monty" F-3 will make it to the air and find it's way into the JASDF inventory. it can only compete if the price is stating something way below the 50m USD mark. Chances to achieve such a price level are more than slim. Maybe a downgraded 4+++++ generation F-3... Not a significant leap in capabilities and just another USP for the F-35.

Compared with the F-2, the F-3's specifications are much more ambitious, so chances are good that the F-2 non-recurring costs will be easily exceeded by the F-3.

If any, we will see the F-3 only being introduced in JSDF service. Simply because they have to do so in order to replace the F-15. The F-4EJ's and F-2's role will already be adopted by the F-35. Or, another option, even more Lightning II...

Erik

[BorgR3mc0]

I think the problem that the Japanese have is that the F-35 is not a good succesor of the F-15. This is exactly the reason why Israel wanted the F-22 and why Korea has its own (turkish collaboration) 5th generation programme.

I am with you that Israel (because of the US backing, just look at the Lavi) and Korea (histocal considerations and own program) are unlikely customers but they have/feel the need for a high end fighter in the air superiority/dominance role. The F-35 is not going to bring that kind of capacity.
Basically any country that has the F-15 and wants to keep that kind of capacity without turning to Russia or China has no real options at this time. So that is why I see a small chance in the market for an F-3.